Start: $2.349 billion, second highest in history

In the first quarter of 2026, China's export value of pesticide formulations reached US$2.349 billion, with an export volume of 855.4 000 tons and a comprehensive unit price maintained at US$2.75 per kilogram.

This is a thought-provoking combination: the amount represents a 21.1% increase over the three-year baseline (median US$1.94 billion in Q1 2023–2025), with a more substantial growth of 27.0%; yet the unit price decreased by 4.6%. Compared horizontally, this marks the highest opening season since the peak of the 2022 price hike cycle (Q1 amount: US$2.68 billion), securing its position as the second-highest in history.

The longitudinal comparison reveals a clear pattern: year-on-year growth reached 14.1% in Q1 2025, marking two consecutive years of positive expansion. However, volume growth (+14.3%) and revenue growth (+14.1%) progressed almost simultaneously—while price stabilization is evident, the fundamental strategy of "driving revenue growth through volume expansion" remains unchanged.

The monthly distribution further corroborates this assessment: $829 million in January, $713 million in February, and $807 million in March. February's figure this year surged significantly compared to the same period in 2025 ($470 million), partly due to the fading low-base effect from export contraction during last year's Spring Festival; March, meanwhile, reflected a return to the traditional inventory-building rhythm, closely aligning with the pattern observed in previous Q1 quarters.

The price trend warrants separate attention. The comprehensive unit price of pharmaceutical preparations once surged to $5.82 per kilogram in 2022 before declining: $4.28 in 2023, $2.88 in 2024, $2.75 in 2025, and again $2.75 in 2026. Maintaining the same price level for two consecutive Q1s is a relatively rare signal for a market that has experienced three years of price declines—it should not be overinterpreted as confirmation of a price bottom, but at least indicates that the intense price clearance phase may have concluded.

Category Structure: The pillar position of herbicides is consolidated, while fungicides show counter-trend growth

The landscape across the four major categories has undergone subtle yet noteworthy changes this quarter.

Herbicides remain the dominant component of the overall export structure. In Q1 2026, export value reached USD 1.527 billion, accounting for 65% of all categories—a year-on-year increase of 21.2% in value and 13.5% in volume—with unit prices rising by 6.9%, making it the only category among the four major types to achieve simultaneous growth in both volume and price. HS subcategory breakdown reveals that retail-packaged herbicides ($380.89311 billion) led the way, contributing 59% of total herbicide exports, followed by non-retail packaging ($623 million; precise figure: $623.3 million). In terms of primary destination markets, Brazil ($167 million), Australia ($152 million), and the United States ($130 million) form the "golden triangle" for herbicide exports, collectively accounting for 44% of total exports in this category. The rise of West Africa is equally notable: Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire combined absorbed USD 247 million worth of herbicide exports, all recording double-digit year-on-year growth.

Fungicides stood out as a notable highlight this quarter. Export value reached $279 million, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase and a 26.0% growth compared to the baseline, with volume up 0.2%. The price surge was primarily driven by higher unit prices (+6.2%) rather than volume expansion, with price recovery being most pronounced across all four product categories. Indonesia ($21.5 million) and Australia ($21.4 million) emerged as the top two destinations for fungicides, both showing significant growth; Thailand ($13.4 million) and Bangladesh ($11.5 million) also ranked among the leaders. The growth in fungicide exports reflects both the sustained expansion of disease control demand in Southeast Asia and Oceania and the seasonal shift in formulation procurement schedules in these markets.

Insecticide exports reached $502 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% (with non-retail packaging sales rising by 4.2%), accompanied by significant volume growth (+26.2%) but the most pronounced price decline (-19.8%). This divergence between volume expansion and price reduction reflects persistent pressure within the price transmission chain for active insecticide ingredients. Brazil remains the largest destination market, accounting for approximately $94 million in quarterly imports; followed by Thailand ($30 million), Myanmar ($20.1 million), and Bangladesh ($19.1 million). The sustained volume growth coupled with declining unit prices indicates that the insecticide market continues to operate under a competition-driven model where price reductions are employed to boost sales volume.

The export value of PGRs (Plant Growth Regulators) reached $41.2 million, representing a 10.1% increase from the baseline but a slight 1.4% year-on-year decrease compared to 2025. Volume grew by 5.2%, while prices saw a minor year-on-year decline. Although the United States was the smallest market in terms of volume, it remained the largest destination for PGRs ($9.34 million), followed by Australia ($3.64 million)—a pattern closely tied to crop cultivation structures.

Latin America: A robust foundation

Latin America continued to rank as the largest region with quarterly export value of $588 million, representing a 22.1% increase from the baseline. The region's appeal remains unshaken—the scale of soybean, corn, and sugarcane cultivation determines the volume of fundamental demand.

Brazil topped the list with $273 million, becoming the world's largest destination country, but its exports fell by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating the onset of the high-base effect from the previous year. The dominance of herbicides in the Brazilian market (accounting for 61% of the country's exports) clearly reflects the strong demand for weed control in soybean-producing regions. Argentina stood out notably this quarter, with export value reaching $38.6 million—a 14.4% year-on-year increase and an 81.3% rise compared to the baseline. Following years of economic turmoil and currency controls, signs of recovery in Argentina's agricultural imports warrant continued attention, though vigilance is needed regarding order volatility.

Colombia ($36.4 million, -9.4%) and Peru ($30.3 million, +9.9%) showed divergent performance, reflecting structural differences within Latin American markets: major commodity crops driving demand versus diversified horticultural crop demands in smaller markets.

West Africa: A New Pillar of the Export Landscape

The data for the West Africa region this quarter are remarkable. Export value reached $409 million, representing a 30.2% surge compared to the baseline, with growth occurring across multiple countries rather than attributable solely to special order effects from any single nation.

Ghana ($109 million, +37.4%) has risen to become the world's fourth-largest destination country. Nigeria ($94.4 million, +7.1%) and Cameroon ($52 million, +8.4%) also maintained steady growth. The leapfrog growth of Côte d' Ivoire ($97.7 million, +70.5%) was particularly notable, reflecting clear expansion in its cocoa and cotton industries. Senegal (+145.0%, absolute value: $17.6 million) emerged as the market with record-breaking sales for both herbicides and insecticides during this quarter.

The rise of the West African market is driven by the accelerated intensification of agricultural production, along with structural factors stemming from regional transshipment and trade logistics.

North America: Short-term outbreak; causes require further investigation

The United States recorded export earnings of $164 million in this quarter, marking a year-on-year surge of 43.0% and a 56.3% jump from the baseline. Canada reported exports of $52.9 million, up 20.8% year-on-year. The North American region totaled $217 million, with a growth rate of +44.9%, the fastest among all major regions.

The surge in the U.S. market was highly concentrated in herbicides ($130 million, +47.0%), with growth also recorded across other categories. Notably, large-scale procurement in North America during Q1—particularly for herbicides—exhibited clear "preemptive stockpiling" characteristics. Since 2026, anticipated tariff changes and uncertainties surrounding agricultural import policies have likely accelerated some procurement cycles forward. Such precautionary stockpiling has occurred repeatedly historically, often preceding relatively sluggish demand in subsequent quarters.

CIS/Central Asia: The New Pattern of Pesticide Trade under the War-time Economy

Russia ($84.2 million, +62.1%), Kazakhstan ($38.6 million, +76.5%), Ukraine ($20.1 million, +12.9%), and Uzbekistan ($16.2 million, +8.4%) all saw increases. The CIS/Central Asia region recorded a total of $172 million, marking a substantial 42.6% rise from the baseline.

The growth in this region is underpinned by a complex geopolitical context. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has continuously heightened Russia's agricultural dependence on China-made pharmaceutical products, while Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) have steadily increased agricultural inputs driven by food security policies. Ukraine's export growth is particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of the war—some of which may be facilitated through third-country transit routes, and the trade flows reflected in the data are far from straightforward.

Europe and South Asia: Relatively Under Pressure

European regional export value reached $85.4 million, a 7.2% decline from the baseline. Poland ($33.4 million, -6.6%) and Romania ($6.21 million, -45.6%) were significant decreased. Pressure on the European market stems from multiple factors: stringent pesticide registration barriers, the policy shift from chemical to biological pesticides, and the overall cyclical cooling of the Eurozone's agricultural economy. Romania's sharp decline is particularly noteworthy, as the country has historically been a key import region of China's pesticides in Eastern Europe.

The South Asia region remained largely stable at $77.5 million (-0.8%). Bangladesh saw a sharp year-on-year decline of $37.5 million (-30.0%), likely due to pressure from domestic inventory reduction; Pakistan also faced slight downward pressure at $26.9 million (-7.3%). Both regions performed below baseline levels, entering an inventory reduction phase in sync with certain Southeast Asian markets.

Middle East: Comprehensive Contraction

The Middle East was the region with the most significant negative growth this quarter, recording total exports of $31.1 million—a sharp 39.6% decline from the baseline. Iraq (-55.2%), Turkey (-43.0%), Israel (-23.0%), and Iran (-2.8%) were among those hit hardest, with virtually no exceptions.

Sanctions continue to intensify trade restrictions against Iran and Iraq. The Israel-Hamas conflict has disrupted the overall pace of agricultural input purchases across the Middle East, while Turkey's exchange rate pressures (with the lira continuously depreciating) have dampened import demand denominated in US dollars. The widespread contraction in pesticide imports from the Middle East reflects not merely seasonal fluctuations but also a systemic reshaping of agrochemical trade flows driven by geopolitical dynamics.

Industry Signal: The Tension Between Price Bottoms and Volume

When examining the complete price-volume data since 2022 across different periods, a clear narrative thread emerges:

In 2022, the price increase cycle drove export volumes to peak at $5.82 per kilogram; in 2023, under inventory reduction pressure, prices fell to $4.28 while volumes did not decline correspondingly; in 2024, prices further dropped to $2.88 but volumes surged sharply to 673.7 thousand tons, with volume growth offsetting the price decline; in 2025, prices edged down to $2.75 and volumes expanded again to 748.5 thousand tons; in Q1 2026, prices remained stable at $2.75 and volumes further increased to 855.4 thousand tons.

This curve indicates that the market is in a structurally stable phase characterized by "volume-for-price" dynamics. After three years of price adjustments, prices have approached the cost floor for certain product categories; the sustained volume expansion reflects the genuine recovery of global agrochemical demand and the continuous growth of China's formulation share in the global market.

Preliminary replenishment signals are observable, albeit unevenly distributed. The explosive growth in North America and the CIS region exhibits characteristics of inventory restocking or precautionary procurement, whereas the notable declines in Southeast Asia (Vietnam: -14%, Philippines: -10%) and South Asia (Bangladesh: -30%) suggest these markets are still digesting previously excessive inventories.

The impact of the Middle East's withdrawal cannot be underestimated. If the current sanctions framework persists, the region's export volume—historically ranging between $30 million and $50 million per quarter—will remain absent. It remains to be seen whether other regions can effectively replace this volume of trade flows.

Conclusion: The Three Factors Behind a Strong Start That Need to Be Observed

The $2.35 billion opening figure for Q1 2026 is encouraging in absolute terms, but a definitive industry assessment will require validation from subsequent data.

Observation 1: Is North American demand actually ahead of schedule or representing genuine growth? If U.S. imports decline sharply in Q2, the surge in Q1 is more likely driven by time-sensitive purchasing behavior.

Observation 2: The Sustainability of African Growth. Has West Africa's leapfrog growth been built on genuine improvements in local agricultural credit and infrastructure, or is there middleman hoarding at play?

Observation 3: Price trend. The price of $2.75/kg has remained stable for two quarters (Q1). If export volumes continue to expand in Q2, could this trigger a new round of price declines? Changes in upstream cost structures for herbicide active ingredients (e.g., glyphosate, paraquat) will serve as a key leading indicator.

For observers of the agrochemical industry, the story for 2026 is just beginning. Export volumes ranked second in history—but have you truly grasped the market signals?

The prices of $2.35 billion, 855.4 thousand tons, and $2.75 per kilogram have stabilized—behind these figures lies a quadruple divergence: the rise of West Africa, aggressive purchasing in North America, contraction in the Middle East, and inventory reduction in South Asia. While the export pace is accelerating, structural risks are also accumulating.

In this export cycle dominated by the 'volume-for-price' logic and characterized by frequent policy changes, businesses must clearly understand how the new EX registration rules will impact their export strategy.